Water Analytics

🟦

2026 Season Outlook Dry water year — C-BT quota 50%, snowpack at 38% of median. 2026 season allocation estimated at ~2 AF/share.

Est. Allocation ~1–2 AF/share

Key Metrics

🇮🇸 System Storage

17,400 AF

of 64,626 AF capacity

27% full

🐥 Diversion Rate

0.0 CFS

= 0.0 AF/day to delivery

N. Poudre Canal 0.0 CFS (0% of max)

Munroe Canal 0.0 CFS

❄ Snowpack

38%

of 30-year median SWE (avg both stations)

Deadman Hill 43% (1.3")

Joe Wright 32% (1.2")

🚴 C-BT Exchange

20,000 AF

40,000 units × 50% quota

Horsetooth 114,543 AF (77.4%)

Carter Lake 54,674 AF (48.8%)

Live Inflow & Fill Projections

🏠 Halligan Reservoir

+8.7 CFS

= +17.3 AF/day filling

N Fork above (natural inflow) 8.7 CFS

N Fork below (dam releases) 0.0 CFS

Days to full† ~342 days

✅ Dam holding all inflow — maximum filling rate

🌿 Joe Wright Creek

1.8 CFS

= 3.5 AF/day tributary inflow

Below Joe Wright Reservoir (USGS 06746110). Contributes to N Fork and ultimately Halligan inflow.

🌿 ET Demand (23,000 acres)

80.5 AF/day

estimated district irrigation demand today

Ref. ET (avg) 0.060" /day

Crop ET (Kc=0.7) 0.042" /day

Precip offset −0.000" /day

Net demand 80.5 AF/day

2025 peak (Jun–Sep) ~283 AF/day avg

CoAgMet FAO-56 ET, 3 stations. Active delivery season.

† Projection uses estimated 50% storage for Halligan (no telemetry) — enter actual reading under Admin → Reservoirs to improve accuracy.

Water Orders & Demand Schedule

📌 Committed This Season

0.0 AF

in pending / approved / active orders

No active orders this week

📅 4-Week Demand Schedule

Week	AF Scheduled	Orders	Diversion covers?
Wk 1 (Nov 15)	0.0	0	—
Wk 2 (Nov 22)	0.0	0	—
Wk 3 (Nov 29)	0.0	0	—
Wk 4 (Dec 06)	0.0	0	—

Season-to-Date Diversions

Historical data not yet seeded. Season-to-date tracking is populated automatically each night from CDSS. First run happens on app startup — data should appear within a few minutes. Admin users can also trigger an immediate seed from the Admin Dashboard.

NPIC Reservoir Storage Detail

Reservoir	Capacity (AF)	Storage (AF)	Fill %	As of
Fossil Creek Reservoir	11,740	3,848	33%	2026-10-19
Park Creek Reservoir	10,393	925	9%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #6	9,968	2,669	27%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #5	6,707	2,582	38%	2026-10-17
Halligan Reservoir	6,440	508	8%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #15	5,579	262	5%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #2	3,854	2,122	55%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #3	3,227	2,116	66%	2026-10-17
Miners Lake	1,985	263	13%	2026-10-17
Indian Creek Reservoir	1,909	1,192	62%	2026-10-17
North Poudre Reservoir #4	1,563	547	35%	2026-10-17
Upper Clark Lake	963	256	27%	2026-10-17
Smith Lake	298	110	37%	2026-10-17
System Total	64,626	~17,400	27%

📈 Historical Context

C-BT quota history and estimated gross yield per share — sourced from Northern Water and CDSS diversion records.

📢 2026 C-BT Quota — Declared April 9, 2026

Northern Water formally declared the 2026 C-BT quota at 80%, up from the November initial of 50%. This is in line with the 2021–2024 average; last year came in slightly lower at 75%.

NPIC C-BT units 40,000 units ÷ 10,000 shares = 4 units / share

At 80% quota 3.2 AF / share from C-BT water alone

Total NPIC C-BT yield 32,000 AF system-wide at 80%

C-BT water is used for exchange — NPIC releases C-BT units to Horsetooth/Carter in exchange for direct deliveries from the North Fork. Total season allocation adds direct N Fork diversions and reservoir releases on top of C-BT exchange, typically yielding 4–6 AF/share in a normal year.

🌧

Wet Years 2023 brought exceptional snowpack (150–200% of median statewide), major Poudre spring flooding, and the best system diversion in a decade — 70,269 AF into NPIC canals.

☀

Dry Years 2021–2022 brought persistent drought and the first-ever Colorado River Tier 1 & 2 shortage declarations (Lake Powell). NPIC relied on reservoir carryover. 2025 saw below-median snowpack with Green Mountain Reservoir ending the year at ~37% — weakening the west-slope C-BT supply.

⚠

Worst Case on Record — 2002 The worst drought in modern Colorado records. NPIC allocation dropped to 0.25 AF/share (vs. normal 4–6 AF). Agricultural rental water hit $80/AF; M&I water reached $400/AF. The entire Front Range went on emergency conservation. This is the floor used in NPIC supply modeling.

Year	Conditions	C-BT Quota	C-BT AF / Share†	Gross Diverted‡	Gross AF / Share	Net AF / Share (~40% loss)
2021	Dry	80%	3.2	64,621	6.46	3.88
2022	Dry	80%	3.2	60,388	6.04	3.62
2023	Wet	80%	3.2	70,269	7.03	4.22
2024	Normal	80%	3.2	66,315	6.63	3.98
2025	Dry	75%	3.0	62,395 *	6.24 *	3.74 *
2026	Normal	80% ◀	3.2	~64,800 est.	~6.48 est.	~3.89 est.

† NPIC: 40,000 C-BT units ÷ 10,000 shares = 4 units/share × quota% = C-BT AF/share (C-BT exchange only). ‡ N Poudre Canal (WDID 0300994) + Munroe Diversion (WDID 0300905) combined gross intake. Net AF/share = gross × 60% after ~40% system-wide conveyance losses; actual announced allocations confirmed with NPIC staff. East-slope carryover (Horsetooth, Carter) buffered 2021–2022 C-BT quota despite Colorado River drought. * 2025 provisional.